Risk
4 published articles
Commentary / Case Simulation · 2026-09-04
The Kenya Sugar Belt: Leasing, Capability and the Ledger Nobody Can See
Four state sugar mills were leased, not sold, in May 2025. Farmer payments and milling have improved at some sites; disclosure, worker arrears and creditor claims remain unresolved. This fact-checked case asks whether leasing has produced capability, or only a change of gatekeeper.
Commentary / Case Simulation · 2026-09-04
Pan Paper Mills, Webuye: Industrial Revival or Industrial Capability?
Pan Paper Mills collapsed in 2009 and failed a state-backed revival in 2010. Since 2016, Rai Group has rebuilt it around recycled fibre. This fact-checked commentary and governance simulation asks what would actually prove capability rather than repeat an announcement.
Commentary / Case Simulation · 2026-09-04
The Magadi Test: When Sovereignty Must Become Capability
Kenya is right to demand more value from Lake Magadi. The real test is whether it can enforce accountability and build downstream industry without replacing one opaque arrangement with another.
Commentary / Case Simulation · 2026-09-01
When the Institution of Trust Becomes the Risk: A KUSCCO Governance Simulation
KUSCCO's liquidation is not only a story about money. It is a case of evidence, incentives, dissent and accountability failing to meet at the same decision table.